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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.