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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending together. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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