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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd